I
AM sometimes asked why Irish readers should be concerned over the fate
of the Greeks. Quite apart from the similarities in the depression of
the two countries, Peter Murtagh’s recent reports from Athens in this
paper vividly indicated the extent of the collapse of Greek society on
both macro and micro levels. This has repercussions for Ireland.
The reasons for needing to know about Greece are threefold.
Firstly,
the fact that we are all within the EU – at least for the present –
means we do not ask for whom the bell tolls: it tolls for us.
Secondly,
we need to appreciate that a country considered principally as a
two-dimensional holiday destination is actually populated by real people
with real lives to lead outside the holiday season: we have severe
winters here!
Thirdly, Greece gave us concepts such as
“democracy”, “economy”, “philosophy”, “aesthetics”, “semantics”, and,
admittedly, “plutocracy” and “kleptocracy” – in fact, about one-third of
our vocabulary. That it should lose its sovereignty, its status, even
its attraction as a holiday magnet, is a matter for all of us to regret
and to recognise we can do nothing about it.
And – here is the real tragedy – neither can the Greeks.
The
public suicide last month of Dimitris Christoulas, a 77-year-old
pharmacist (he shot himself in the head outside the Greek parliament),
shocked Greece. His daughter described it as a “political act”, while
one observer, speaking on television, called it “political murder” on
the part of government.
Whatever his ideological allegiance, there
was no doubting his sincerity – his decision was the final, dignified
act of protest against a system that had completely alienated him. It
was this which resonated through every Greek mind.
This man’s
death should have been at the forefront of every politician’s mind
during the election, should have focused attention on what it represents
in terms of the frustration, indignation and despair of the vast
majority of citizens who voted for those politicians, or didn’t vote at
all, on May 6th.
In the village where I live, election fever was
precisely that: heightened beyond anything I have seen before, fuelled
by fear of the unknown. There were mixed feelings about both Pasok and
New Democracy (ND) – sorrow that the former, which had seemed to protect
all interests, had incurred debts which the country cannot sustain, and
scepticism over the prevarication of ND leader Antonis Samaras. No one
was sure what the centre parties were offering. Indeed, the curious fact
about this ballot is that it was an election without promises, except
for the far-right and far-left.
Samaras had only a short time to
form a government, and indeed gave up trying after a few hours. The task
rests for now with the far-left Syriza, which pushed Pasok into third
place in the polls. If Syriza fails it will be the turn of Evangelos
Venizelos, leader of Pasok. In the event no government emerges, the
president can call for a government of national unity – an unlikely
outcome. On election night, the leader of Democratic Left, the most
likely coalition partner, ruled out that possibility. Syriza, the
communists and the right-wing Independent Greeks are equally improbable,
as is the neo-fascist Golden Dawn which, with 7 per cent, wins 22
seats.
There is consternation the two parties in the last
government might regain power, despite the fact their combined vote fell
by more than half, from 76 per cent to less than 33 per cent.
The
most likely scenario, it seems to me, is a minority government of New
Democracy and Pasok, supported on each vote by different parties,
depending on the issues, heading to fresh elections, most likely before
the autumn. Another possible scenario is a coalition that could succeed
in renegotiating the terms of the bailout; another is a default, exit
from the euro zone and perhaps a military coup.
The chief of the
International Monetary Fund (IMF) in Athens, Poul Thomsen, has been
contemptuous of Greece’s efforts to fulfil the bailout conditions, and
in the run-up to the election he made blatant attempts to influence the
outcome by demanding a stable coalition capable of implementing the
changes that he himself has largely prescribed.
With the two
bailouts merely stabilising the country’s ability to repay its debts,
but having no effect on the ever-deepening recession, the usefulness of
the EU and IMF aid is seriously in question as far as ordinary life is
concerned. This election or, more likely, the next, will decide the
direction of Greek affairs for decades, and will probably change the
character of Greek politics. It is not merely about whether Greece will
sink or swim in economic terms, but whether it can survive as a polity.
On
April 24th, the governor of the Bank of Greece, made it clear how
serious the situation was, calling for “fundamental qualitative change”
in “the values and attitudes that shape our behaviour”, and predicting,
otherwise, “an irreparable break-up of social cohesion” and “a drastic
deterioration in the standard of living”.
In effect, this election
has been a referendum on the economic situation and its consequences,
and with very little clarity in the outcome. In one sense, those who
voted for the fringe parties were throwing away their vote; in another,
they were registering their disillusion.
The fragmentation of
parliament has caused a political vortex. Will it drag everyone
downwards, or will a new sense of destiny emerge?
The Irish Times
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